Factors predicting physical readiness towards basic military training

Background: Basic Military Training (BMT) in the Canadian Armed Forces includes high physical demands. Given low levels of fitness in the Canadian population, the Basic Training Fitness Test (BTFT) was introduced to assess early readiness, and a Pre Basic Military Training (Pre-BMT) program was developed to support preparation. Objective: This study aimed to identify predictors of BTFT success and examine the influence of Pre BMT engagement. Methods: From January to November 2024, 3933 candidates (687 female) completed assessments during week one of BMT including the BTFT, body composition analysis, and a Pre-BMT engagement survey. Logistic regression with elastic net regularization models predicted BTFT success for the full cohort and by sex. Results: Overall BTFT success was 91.8%, with males outperforming females (96.2% vs. 70.9%). The full cohort model (AUC = 0.87) retained sex, body fat percentage, skeletal muscle mass, age, height, candidate type, recruitment duration, and Pre-BMT engagement. Lower body fat, greater muscle mass, younger age, and officer cadet status were associated with higher odds of success; female sex predicted lower odds. The male model (AUC = 0.82) also retained height, while the female model (AUC = 0.78) included previous pregnancy, but excluded candidate type and Pre-BMT engagement. Engagement level was not a significant predictor in any model. Conclusions: Body composition emerged as the strongest determinant of BTFT success, underscoring the value of targeted pre-conditioning to increase muscle mass and reduce adiposity. Tailored training strategies that account for sex may enhance readiness. Given low Pre-BMT participation, its potential role in candidate preparation warrants further study.