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Global patterns of chemical incident reporting from open-source intelligence, 2023-2024
Damian Alexander Honeyman1, David James Heslop2, Zubair Akhtar1
1Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
International Journal of Environmental Health Research
|February 20, 2026
Summary
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) effectively detects global chemical incidents, providing real-time data for public health preparedness. This method enhances early warning systems where formal surveillance is lacking.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Public Health Surveillance
- Chemical Safety
Background:
- Chemicals are increasingly developed, transported, and used globally, posing risks to health and the environment.
- Existing global surveillance for chemical incidents is limited, hindering timely public health responses.
- Open-source intelligence (OSINT) offers a novel approach for event-based surveillance of chemical incidents.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the utility of OSINT for detecting and monitoring chemical incidents worldwide.
- To identify geographic trends, common locations, and characteristics of reported chemical incidents.
- To assess OSINT's potential to support public health preparedness and response efforts.
Main Methods:
- Translated keywords (chemical, incident, accident, spill) into 32 languages for Google Alerts monitoring (Sept 2023 - Mar 2024).
- Utilized Google Translate for alert translation, Microsoft Excel for data extraction, STATA/BE 18.0 for analysis, and ArcGIS Pro for mapping.
- Collected and analyzed data on 128 identified chemical incidents.
Main Results:
- The United States (44.5%), India (16.4%), and Australia (11.7%) reported the most incidents.
- Roads (24.2%) and chemical plants (19.5%) were common incident locations.
- Incidents primarily involved unknown chemicals (53.1%) and were accidental (93.8%), causing 567 non-hospitalized injuries, 273 hospitalizations, and 84 fatalities.
Conclusions:
- OSINT provides a valuable real-time method for chemical incident signal detection and situational awareness.
- This approach enhances early warning capabilities, especially in regions with limited formal surveillance systems.
- OSINT supports informed public health responses to chemical incidents, complementing traditional methods.
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