Humans, shrublands and fires are affecting an endangered wolf population

In Portugal, the Iberian wolf is at risk of extinction due to ongoing global changes, human activity, and persecution. Identifying environmental and anthropogenic drivers associated with the occurrence of these populations in human-dominated landscapes is vital for effective conservation. The main objective was to evaluate the influence of environmental and food resource variables, namely (i) landscape features, (ii) anthropogenic factors, and (iii) food resource availability on Iberian wolf occurrence. We used data from the long-term database of the genetic wolf monitoring programme (2011-2021) from central Portugal, based on monthly scat surveys. The study area was divided into 2 × 2 km grid cells as a measure of wolf occurrence. We applied a generalised linear mixed model and selected the best model based on the lowest AICc value. The explained variance was determined using part R2 and inclusive R2, while beta weights were used to determine the effects of each variable on wolf occurrence. Anthropogenic factors explained the largest proportion of variance in wolf occurrence, followed by landscape characteristics. The Human Footprint Index (HFI) and cumulative burned area had a significant negative influence on wolf occurrence. Wolves tended to select hilltops and avoid agricultural land, although the effects of land use were not statistically significant. Food resources had no influence on the occurrence of wolves. The negative effect of the HFI reflects the high level of conflict between humans and wolves. A reduction in fires would promote the reintroduction of wild ungulates, increase food availability and reduce livestock depredation, which would contribute to human-wolf coexistence.