Projecting future climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of a large squid in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

In order to explore distribution changes of jumbo flying squid Dosidicus gigas under different emission scenarios in the future, this study established a maximum entropy model to examine the suitable habitats of Dosidicus gigas in different sea areas in the Eastern Pacific in summer, based on seven crucial environmental factors and fishery data. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the maximum entropy model in each sea area was greater than 0.8, and the actual fishing locations coincided with the suitable habitat range fitted by the model. By comparing the contribution rates of each environment factors, it was found that the impact on the habitat of the D.gigas have regional differences. SSH had the greatest influence on the habitat across all three regions. The optimal habitats of D.gigas under the medium emission scenario (SSP370) and high emission scenario (SSP585) showed the potential optimal habitats of D.gigas in the equatorial and offshore waters of Peru were declining year by year, while that in the coastal waters of Chile showed an increasing trend. The gravity center of the optimum habitat of D.gigas in the equatorial waters moved westward, the gravity center of the optimum habitat in the waters off Peru and off Chile moved to the southwest. Under more severe emission scenarios, these changes in future habitat suitability were even more intense. This pole-ward and westward redistribution in the future could restructure regional squid fisheries and should be explicitly considered in trans-boundary management plans.