Improved adaptation capacity offsets the precipitation-induced mountain hazard risks in Sichuan-Tibet region

Mountain hazards pose a serious threat to people's lives and property, while adaptive behaviors help reduce the risk by lowering the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies. However, most current risk assessments focus solely on disaster losses, neglecting the role of human adaptive behaviors in mitigating hazard risks. Therefore, taking Sichuan-Tibet region-a typical area prone to mountain hazards with multiple adaptation strategies-as an example, this study refines the traditional "Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability (H-E-V)" theory by developing a comprehensive mountain hazard risk assessment framework that incorporates adaptability from the aspects of economy education, healthcare and emergency facilities. The framework combines multidimensional data on geology, terrain, hydrology and adaptation measures, along with methods like random forest, comprehensive evaluation and counterfactual scenario analysis to assess mountain hazard risks in Sichuan-Tibet region both currently and under future scenarios, identifying the main drivers of changes in risk levels. Our results indicate that 10.20% of Sichuan-Tibet region exhibits a high risk level (Level≥7) at the current stage (2020), primarily concentrated in areas prone to frequent intense rainfall, high geological activity, and poor educational and healthcare infrastructure. Future risk predictions under SSP1-2030, SSP1-2050, SSP5-2030 and SSP5-2050 scenarios demonstrate that the proportion of high-risk areas will decrease to 3.28%, 0.99%, 3.15% and 1.02%, respectively. Critically, enhanced adaptive capacity offsets the heightened risks in 96.61-98.40% of Sichuan-Tibet region from intensified extreme precipitation across all future scenarios, with improvements in education and healthcare serving as the key drivers. Overall, our research offers new insights into mountain hazard risk assessment and emphasizes the crucial role of enhancing adaptive capacity in mitigating mountain hazard risks. Our findings can provide theoretical guidance for emergency management departments to formulate customized risk mitigation strategies for high-risk areas.