Integrative Multimodal Subtyping, Risk of Incident Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Differential Cardiometabolic...

Cognitively unimpaired (CU) adults vary substantially in their risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI), yet most subtyping approaches focus on downstream neurobiological or cognitive markers rather than upstream, modifiable risk factors. We aimed to identify clinically meaningful subgroups of CU adults defined by integrated comorbid, behavioral, and social risk profiles, and to evaluate heterogeneity in both incident MCI risk and cardiometabolic treatment effects.

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 121,322 CU adults aged ≥50 years from the All of Us Research Program. Baseline comorbidities, lifestyle behaviors, and social determinants of health were jointly modeled using the Bayesian Mixed Integrative Data Subtyping framework, which integrates binary and continuous modalities via modality-specific likelihoods and shared latent constructs. Subtype-specific risk of incident MCI was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for demographics and baseline medication use. A double/debiased machine learning interactive regression model with inverse probability of censoring weights to mitigate bias from informative censoring was implemented to estimate the average treatment effects of antihypertensive agents, Glucagon-Like Peptide (GLP) receptor agonists, and non-GLP antidiabetic medications on time to MCI.

Four distinct subtypes were identified: I low-risk healthy aging, II behavioral/social vulnerability, III cardiometabolic-depressive multimorbidity, and IV mixed social-medical vulnerability profiles. Compared with Subtype I, Subtype III demonstrated the highest risk of incident MCI (HR: 3.69, 95% CI: 3.14-4.33), followed by Subtype IV and Subtype II. In treatment effect analyses, antihypertensive use was associated with a modest prolongation of MCI-free survival overall (time ratio:1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.06), with the largest benefit observed in Subtype III (time ratio: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19). Non-GLP antidiabetic therapies were similarly associated with modest overall delay, with significant benefits in Subtypes I and III. GLP-class therapies were not associated with overall delay but showed a significant association in Subtype III.

Integrative subtyping based on comorbid, behavioral, and social risk factors reveals clinically meaningful heterogeneity in both cognitive risk and treatment response. Aligning dementia prevention strategies with dominant vulnerability pathways may enhance the effectiveness and equity of population-level precision prevention.