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Dynamic Ex-Post Baselines for Enhancing the Credibility of Improved Forest Management Carbon Offsets.

Runxin Yu^1,2, Ziheng Zhu², Shize Qin²

¹Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, Fujian 361021, China.

Environmental Science & Technology

|February 23, 2026

Summary

Forest carbon offsets often overestimate climate benefits due to flawed baselines. This study reveals systematic underestimation of carbon sequestration, questioning the additionality of management activities and leading to inflated carbon credits.

Keywords:

baseline scenario forest carbon offset credit voluntary carbon market

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Climate Change Mitigation
Forestry Management

Background:

Forest carbon offsets are crucial for climate strategies but face integrity issues due to inaccurate baselines.
Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects claim significant carbon sequestration, yet their environmental integrity is often questionable.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess the environmental integrity of five IFM projects in China by constructing empirically derived baselines.
To evaluate the accuracy of claimed carbon sequestration and additionality of management activities in forest carbon offset projects.

Main Methods:

Utilized ex-post counterfactual methods with satellite observations (2001-2020) to construct dynamic baselines.
Employed synthetic control, statistical matching, and machine learning to model pre-intervention carbon dynamics.
Compared empirically derived baselines with project-reported static baselines.

Main Results:

Counterfactual baselines accurately tracked pre-intervention carbon dynamics, revealing systematic underestimation in reported scenarios.
Project forests showed natural carbon stock accumulation, contradicting static baseline projections.
No evidence of additionality was found for management activities across the studied projects.
Ex-ante projected emission reductions were overestimated by a factor of 3.7, and ex-post credits by a factor of 1.7.

Conclusions:

Biased baselines in current offset protocols lead to inflated climate benefits and over-crediting.
Existing protocols fail to account for real, dynamic forest trends, undermining nature-based solutions.
A framework for robust, independent monitoring and dynamic baseline setting is essential for credible forest carbon offsets.