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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 25, 2026

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment

Published on: October 28, 2022

Detectable global temperature responses to wildfires and volcanic eruptions.

Yaowei Li¹, Benjamin D Santer², Susan Solomon¹

¹Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|February 23, 2026

Summary

Large volcanic eruptions and intense wildfires significantly alter Earth's atmospheric temperature. This study identifies distinct climate fingerprints from these natural events, improving climate model accuracy.

Keywords:

atmospheric temperature climate forcing satellite and model data volcanic eruptions wildfires

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Area of Science:

Atmospheric Science
Climate Science
Earth System Science

Background:

Volcanic eruptions and wildfires are major natural forcings impacting Earth's atmospheric temperature.
While sulfate aerosols from volcanoes are well-studied, the climate effects of wildfire smoke and water vapor from submarine eruptions are less understood.
Accurate climate response assessment requires understanding all natural forcings, including less-studied ones.

Purpose of the Study:

To detect and attribute atmospheric temperature impacts from natural forcings like volcanic eruptions and wildfires.
To analyze the distinct climate fingerprints of landmark events: Pinatubo eruption (1991), Australian wildfires (2019-2020), and Hunga Tonga eruption (2022).
To improve climate model simulations by accounting for diverse natural forcings.

Main Methods:

Utilizing multidecadal satellite observations.
Employing climate model ensembles for internal variability estimation.
Analyzing temperature anomalies in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Main Results:

Robust detection of statistically significant temperature anomalies in both troposphere and stratosphere.
Australian wildfires left a detectable stratospheric signal despite lower aerosol mass compared to Pinatubo.
Hunga Tonga eruption caused significant, prolonged stratospheric cooling but no robust tropospheric signal in the first two years.

Conclusions:

Both sulfate and non-sulfate stratospheric perturbations create distinct, identifiable global temperature signals.
Wildfire smoke and water vapor injections can significantly impact atmospheric temperature.
Incorporating these diverse natural forcings into climate models is crucial for accurate simulations and comparisons with observations.