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In a population that is not at Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, the frequency of alleles changes over time. Therefore, any deviations from the five conditions of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium can alter the genetic variation of a given population. Conditions that change the genetic variability of a population include mutations, natural selection, non-random mating, gene flow, and genetic drift (small population size).
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Evolution under Stochastic Transmission: Mutation-rate Modifiers.

Elisa Heinrich-Mora1, Marcus Feldman1

  • 1Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Theoretical Population Biology
|February 23, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Stochasticity in genetic transmission can alter evolutionary trajectories. Random fluctuations in mutation rates, not just average rates, influence whether modifier alleles invade, impacting the direction of selection.

Keywords:
Evolutionary geneticsMutation-rate modifiersMutation–selection balanceRecombinationReduction principleStochastic transmission

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Area of Science:

  • Population genetics
  • Evolutionary biology
  • Theoretical biology

Background:

  • Evolutionary models often fix genetic transmission, focusing on selection variation.
  • Stochasticity in transmission itself is less explored but crucial for understanding evolution.
  • A neutral modifier locus controlling mutation rates linked to a selected locus is a common model.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of stochasticity in genetic transmission on evolutionary dynamics.
  • To determine if random fluctuations in mutation rates alter the predictions of the Reduction Principle.
  • To explore how temporal mutation rate distributions and recombination affect modifier allele invasion.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling of a selected locus and a linked neutral modifier locus.
  • Analysis of invasion dynamics for a rare modifier allele under fluctuating mutation rates.
  • Comparison of stochastic transmission models with deterministic predictions (Reduction Principle).

Main Results:

  • Under constant transmission, the Reduction Principle dictates invasion based on mean mutation rates.
  • Stochastic transmission, with fluctuating mutation rates, decouples invasion from mean rates.
  • Invasion success depends on mutation rate distribution, selection strength, and recombination rate.

Conclusions:

  • Stochastic transmission and recombination can change the direction of selection on modifier alleles.
  • Deterministic predictions based on average mutation rates are insufficient in stochastic settings.
  • The study highlights the importance of incorporating transmission stochasticity into evolutionary models.