Integrated Estimates of Forest Expansion Opportunity in New York State

Forest expansion is an important climate mitigation strategy in support of decarbonization efforts. Estimates of land-based potential for forest expansion and other natural climate solutions typically neglect key social dimensions that shape land conversion opportunity. Building on our previous work that examines landowner willingness to expand forest, our analysis integrates estimates of potential for converting land into forest with social preferences of private landowners in New York, United States. We estimate that, when accounting for landowner willingness and excluding land in active agriculture, the maximum amount of land where there is opportunity in New York is 352,000 acres, about one-fifth of the State's 1.7-million-acre goal. Support for local conservation practitioners and landowner-tailored programming must be expanded to meet climate mitigation goals.