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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 26, 2026

Modified Most Probable Number Assay to Quantify Salmonella in Raw and Ready-to-Cook Chicken Products

Modified Most Probable Number Assay to Quantify Salmonella in Raw and Ready-to-Cook Chicken Products

Published on: January 31, 2025

Can time-dependent optimal interventions reduce Salmonella spread? A multi-pathway ODE model using real data from EU.

Zubair Ahmad¹, Serena Crisci², Bin Sun³

¹Division of Statistics, Department of Political Science, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy; Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Campania, "Luigi Vanvitelli", Caserta, 81100, Italy.

Computational Biology and Chemistry

|February 24, 2026

Summary

Optimizing Salmonella control requires dynamic interventions. Coordinated strategies, especially early and constant ones, significantly reduce disease spread and are cost-effective for public health.

Keywords:

Computer simulations Differential equations Mathematical modeling Optimal control Salmonella transmission Sensitivity analysis

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Public Health

Background:

Salmonella poses a significant global health threat due to complex transmission routes.
Effective control requires efficient resource allocation for disease management.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and analyze optimal intervention strategies for reducing Salmonella transmission.
To identify cost-effective control measures using a mathematical model.

Main Methods:

A compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model was developed and calibrated with EU/EEA Salmonella data (2007-2023).
Global sensitivity analysis identified key epidemiological parameters.
An optimal control framework was used to determine time-dependent strategies minimizing infection and costs.

Main Results:

Coordinated, dynamic interventions significantly reduced Salmonella incidence compared to no control.
Early and constant intervention strategies demonstrated the highest cost-effectiveness.
Environmental decontamination, food safety, vector control, treatment/isolation, and education were evaluated.

Conclusions:

Dynamic and coordinated Salmonella control strategies are crucial for effective disease management.
Early and sustained interventions offer the most cost-effective approach.
The study provides a data-driven framework for evidence-based Salmonella prevention and control.