Risk stratification of patients with TP53-mutated myeloproliferative neoplasms

While TP53 mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are associated with an increased risk of leukemic transformation, not all patients carrying a TP53 mutation progress. To better risk-stratify MPN patients with TP53 mutations, we analyzed data from 1540 patients treated at four specialized cancer centers. Among them, 1429 had wildtype TP53 and 111 had mutations in the TP53 gene. At first MPN diagnosis, 32% had polycythemia vera, 39% had essential thrombocythemia, and 25% had primary myelofibrosis. Among all MPN patients with TP53 mutations, presence of fibrosis in the bone marrow (hazard ratio (HR): 3.84, 95% CI: 1.98-7.43), multi-hit TP53 mutation status (HR: 2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52-4.97), and higher PHANTM score (HR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02-3.42) were associated with worse OS in a multivariable analysis. Based on these variables, we developed a risk model to identify TP53-mutated MPN patients who are at high risk for inferior OS. Median OS from time of TP53 detection was 0.5 years in high-risk patients, compared to 2.3 years for patients with intermediate risk and 6.3 years for patients with low risk. This scoring system may help refine risk stratification for chronic phase MPN patients harboring TP53 aberrations.