Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 26, 2026
A Hepatocellular Cancer Patient-Derived Organoid Xenograft Model to Investigate Impact of Liver Regeneration on Tumor Growth
Published on: February 2, 2024
Development of a Nomogram Model to Predict Post-Transplant Tumor Recurrence in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Hao Wang1, Encheng Liu1, Mei Wu1
1Department of Radiology, Tianjin First Central Hospital, Tianjin, 300384, People's Republic of China.
Objective:
To develop a nomogram based on clinical characteristics for predicting post-transplant tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients beyond the Milan criteria who received transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) bridging therapy.
Methods:
A retrospective analysis included 73 such patients (29 conventional TACE [cTACE], 44 drug-eluting bead TACE [DEB-TACE]) who underwent liver transplantation at our institution between January 2013 and January 2020, with follow-up until January 2024 (mean: 33.2 ± 6.5 months). Clinical/pathological features were analyzed via univariate and multivariate Cox regression to identify recurrence-related factors, and a nomogram was constructed. Bootstrap validation (B=20) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) evaluated its performance.
Results:
The 1-, 2-, 3-year cumulative recurrence rates were 17.8%, 23.3%, 24.7% (median recurrence time: 6 months). cTACE group rates (20.7%, 27.6%, 31.0%) were higher than DEB-TACE (15.9%, 20.5%, 20.5%; P=0.034). Independent risk factors: bridging therapy type (HR=2.402, P=0.034), microvascular invasion (HR=3.445, P=0.001), tumor necrosis rate (HR=26.664, P=0.002), pre-TACE AFP (HR=2.750, P=0.004). The nomogram's AUC for 1-, 2-, 3-year recurrence was 0.740, 0.764, 0.886, with good calibration via bootstrap.
Conclusion:
A nomogram based on clinical characteristics accurately predicts post-transplant recurrence in HCC patients beyond the Milan criteria with TACE bridging therapy, providing guidance for optimizing donor allocation.
