Predicting mental health problems in military personnel following deployment: The Military Mental Health Risk Screen

Many military service members experience posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental health conditions following deployment; however, current methods for screening and identifying those at risk for developing mental health disorders are insufficient. The present study used archival, prospectively collected longitudinal data on risk factors to create a brief screening measure that could be used to proactively identify those most likely to develop longer-term PTSD and other mental health symptoms following deployment. Data were available for 512 military personnel, and the sample was randomly divided in half to create derivation and replication samples. Participants from all branches of the Armed Forces completed a mailed survey within 12 months of returning from deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan and were reassessed 6-9 months later. After identifying Time 1 risk factors that predicted elevated Time 2 PTSD in the derivation sample, items were trimmed to 16 that accounted for the most variance in PTSD scores. Using receiver operating characteristic curves, the most appropriate performance cut score for sufficient sensitivity and specificity was identified in the samples. Results revealed optimal performance using a cut score of ≥19, with higher sensitivity than specificity (.803 and .715), as expected for a screening measure. This 16-item Military Mental Health Risk Screen shows promise for accurately assessing post-deployment risk for PTSD and overall mental health symptoms in returning service members and guiding prevention and early intervention efforts.