Unequal by the gun: Four decades of the Black-White firearm homicide gap

Firearm homicide is a leading cause of death in the United States, with substantial racial disparities documented over time. Black Americans experience disproportionately higher rates of firearm homicide compared to White Americans, reflecting long-standing social, economic, and structural inequities. This study contributes to understanding the magnitude and trends of this disparity.

We investigate the Black-White population-level disparity in firearm homicide rates over 45 years in the United States and estimate the fraction of excess deaths in the Black population attributable to firearm homicides.

We measure racial disparities in firearm homicides as the ratio of age-adjusted rates between Black and White populations. Using annual national firearm homicide and population data from CDC WONDER (1979-2023), disaggregated by race, age, and sex, we calculate age-adjusted Black-White mortality ratios by year and sex, as well as the number of excess Black firearm homicide deaths attributable to these disparities.

After a steady period of 1990-2010, the Black-White disparity began increasing and peaked in 2020 when the firearm homicide rate in males was 10.38 times higher in Blacks than Whites. There were 31,202 excess firearm homicides of Black people attributed to the Black-White racial disparity in 2021-2023.

Despite significant declines in firearm homicides during the 1990s, the relative racial gap in firearm homicide has persisted and grown, reflecting the unequal burden of violence borne by the Black population during both declines and surges of violence.