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Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming
Hongzhi Zhang1,2,3,4, Yuli Shan5, Ruoqi Li3,6,7
1School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Nature Communications
|February 25, 2026
Summary
Air conditioning (AC) use drives significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, worsening global warming. Rising incomes increase AC demand and emissions, necessitating a transition to low-carbon cooling solutions for equitable access.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Socio-economics
Background:
- Global warming and socio-economic development are increasing air-conditioning (AC) use.
- AC technology, while providing thermal comfort, emits substantial greenhouse gases (GHG), contributing to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify global AC-related GHG emissions and their warming impact.
- To differentiate the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development to AC emissions.
- To analyze the role of income inequality in AC access and its impact on emissions.
Main Methods:
- Modeling AC-related GHG emissions under five climate scenarios (SSPs).
- Separating the influence of climate-driven cooling demand versus socio-economic factors.
- Estimating the temperature increase attributable to AC emissions.
Main Results:
- Under the SSP245 scenario, cumulative AC emissions (2010-2050) are projected at 113.3 GtCO2eq, potentially raising global mean temperature by 0.05°C.
- Climate-driven cooling demand accounts for only ~8.3% of this increase.
- Rising incomes, while reducing inequality, significantly increase emissions (14-146 GtCO2eq by 2050), adding 0.003-0.05°C warming.
Conclusions:
- AC growth presents a substantial climate challenge, driven more by socio-economic development than climate change itself.
- Addressing income inequality in cooling access is crucial but must be balanced with emission reduction strategies.
- A rapid transition to low-carbon cooling technologies is essential to mitigate warming impacts and ensure equitable access.
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