Recent trends in US government healthcare & behavioral health workforce departures

Healthcare and behavioral health professionals employed by local, state, and federal governments are essential to maintaining public health infrastructure, ensuring access to care, and responding to emergencies. Despite their importance, limited research has examined how recent policy, budgetary, and labor market changes are influencing their employment stability and retention within government sectors.

This study used longitudinal data from the Current Population Survey (2015-2025) to examine employment transitions among government-employed healthcare and behavioral health workers. We estimated the predicted probabilities of (1) transitions from government to non-governmental employment and (2) full exits from the labor force.

Historically, federal healthcare and behavioral health workers had the lowest exit rates from government employment, but their probability of leaving government employment rose sharply in 2024-2025, converging with state and local levels (8%). Healthcare workers were consistently more likely than behavioral health workers to transition out of government roles, though both groups experienced higher exit rates in 2024-2025. Federal employees also exhibited a modest increase in labor force exits, from 2.5%-3% to 3.8% in 2024-2025.

These trends suggest increasing instability in the government-employed health workforce.