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Related Experiment Videos

Explainable AI-driven customer churn prediction: a multi-model ensemble approach with SHAP-based feature analysis.

Ali El Attar1, Mohammed El-Hajj1

  • 1Faculty of Computer Studies (FCS), Arab Open University (AOU), Beirut, Lebanon.

Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
|February 26, 2026
PubMed
Summary

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This study enhances customer churn prediction in telecommunications using machine learning. Gradient boosting models, particularly XGBoost, show superior performance, identifying contract type and tenure as key churn indicators for targeted retention strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Telecommunications
  • Machine Learning
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Customer churn poses significant challenges to telecommunications profitability.
  • Effective retention strategies are crucial for maintaining market share and revenue.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate a machine learning framework for accurate customer churn prediction.
  • To identify key drivers of customer churn within the telecommunications sector.
  • To provide actionable insights for optimizing customer retention strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Telco Customer Churn dataset (n = 7,043).
  • Implemented feature engineering and SMOTE oversampling.
  • Trained and evaluated seven machine learning models, including XGBoost, Random Forest, and Multi-layer Perceptron.
Keywords:
SHAP analysiscustomer churn predictioncustomer retentioncustomer segmentationexplainable AImachine learning

Related Experiment Videos

  • Employed SHAP analysis for model interpretation and customer segmentation.
  • Main Results:

    • Gradient boosting algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM, Gradient Boosting) achieved the highest balanced performance (F1-score: 0.84).
    • XGBoost demonstrated superior discriminative ability (AUC-ROC: 0.932).
    • Contract type, tenure, and technical support were identified as primary churn predictors.
    • Optimized prediction threshold (0.528) balanced precision (0.90) and recall (0.91), reducing false negatives by 15%.

    Conclusions:

    • Machine learning, particularly gradient boosting, offers a robust approach to customer churn prediction in telecommunications.
    • Identifying key churn drivers enables the development of targeted and effective customer retention initiatives.
    • The findings support data-driven decision-making for telecom customer retention efforts.