Closing the Gap: Refining Vaccine Forecasting and Resupply Calculations in Mozambique Through Advanced Routine Data...

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Supply Chain Management
• Vaccinology

Background:

• Vaccine stockouts at health facilities hinder immunization program effectiveness.
• Inaccurate population estimates and forecasting methods contribute to supply chain inefficiencies.
• This study examines facility-level data in Mozambique to improve vaccine supply chain management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze routine facility-level data for improved vaccine supply chain management.
• To provide insights for resupply decisions at the facility level in Mozambique.
• To evaluate the accuracy of population-based forecasting versus alternative methods.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of routine facility-level data from August to October 2023.
• Assessment of wastage rates, session cohort data, and forecast accuracy.
• Comparison of population-based forecasting with BCG dose administration as a proxy.

Main Results:

• Facility-level wastage rates showed significant variation, differing from district and global standards.
• Divergence in vaccination doses administered correlated with stockout periods.
• Population-based forecasting undersupplied facilities by 20%, while BCG dose proxy oversupplied by 12% with tighter variance.

Conclusions:

• Current population-based forecasting methods are inadequate for vaccine resupply.
• Leveraging facility-level data, tailored wastage rates, and adjusted inventory policies can enhance vaccine availability.
• Shifting forecasting approaches is crucial for effective immunization supply chains.