A Multi-Country Comparison of Number Needed to Vaccinate for PCV20 and PCV15 in Infants

Background/Objectives: Infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) have significantly reduced pneumococcal morbidity and mortality. Newer vaccines, 15-valent (PCV15) and 20-valent (PCV20), offer broader serotype coverage, potentially preventing more disease. This study estimated the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one disease outcome for infant PCV20 and PCV15 programs versus 13-valent PCV (PCV13). Countries from Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas were included. Methods: A multi-cohort, population-based model estimated the cumulative NNVs for infant programs with PCV20 and PCV15 relative to PCV13 in 21 countries. Outcomes included overall pneumococcal case, hospitalization, and death. The ratio of PCV15 NNVs to PCV20 NNVs was calculated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario assessments tested results' robustness. Results: Across 21 countries, the median of country-specific NNV estimates to prevent one pneumococcal case was 13 with PCV20 and 80 with PCV15. Median NNVs to prevent a hospitalization or death were 44 and 568 with PCV20 and 203 and 2203 with PCV15, respectively. PCV20 demonstrated lower NNVs than PCV15 across all countries and outcomes. Median NNV ratios for PCV15 versus PCV20 were 5.1 (case), 4.5 (hospitalization), and 4.2 (death). No clear geographic differences were observed. PSA and scenario analyses indicated stable results with minimal deviations. Conclusions: Infant immunization with PCV20 is associated with lower NNVs than PCV15. To achieve the same disease reduction as PCV20, over five times as many children would need to be vaccinated with PCV15. These findings suggest PCV20 may offer greater public health impact compared with PCV15 in infant immunization programs.