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Recent water cycle changes in Spanish forests are driven by stand structure more than climatic changes.

Jesús Sánchez-Dávila1, Miquel De Cáceres1, Jordi Vayreda1

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Forest stand structure changes significantly impact water cycles, increasing evapotranspiration (green water) and decreasing runoff (blue water). Forest management, like basal area reduction, can enhance blue water availability.

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Area of Science:

  • Forest Ecology
  • Hydrology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Forest water cycles are increasingly affected by climate change, leading to altered green water (evapotranspiration) and blue water (runoff + drainage) dynamics.
  • Forest expansion and increasing leaf area index (LAI) due to land-use changes further influence water availability.
  • The combined effects of climate and stand structure changes on forest water cycles are not well understood at large scales.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the Spanish forest water cycle from 1990-2020, analyzing trends in climate and forest structure.
  • To assess changes in green and blue water across different forest types and management regimes.
  • To understand the relative influence of climate change versus stand structure on water cycle alterations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized national forest inventory data from three surveys (1990-2020).
  • Modeled forest water cycles at the plot level, analyzing climate and stand structure trends.
  • Compared water cycle changes in managed versus unmanaged forests.

Main Results:

  • Observed an increase in green water and a decrease in blue water over the study period.
  • Leaf area index (LAI) growth demonstrated a stronger influence on green water increase than climate change.
  • Recent precipitation declines and stand structure changes significantly reduced blue water availability.
  • Basal area reduction temporarily improved blue water yield, but LAI recovery diminished this effect over time.

Conclusions:

  • Changes in forest stand structure, particularly LAI growth, are critical drivers of water cycle alterations, comparable to or exceeding climate change impacts.
  • Forest management strategies, such as basal area reduction, can enhance blue water production, especially when implemented significantly and maintained.
  • Understanding these interactions is crucial for regional water resource management under changing environmental conditions.