A Novel Nomogram that Predicts Chronic Hemodialysis Patients' Survival Based on Their Sedentary Behavior

Appropriate treatments for chronic hemodialysis patients are a public health challenge in Japan. Sedentary behavior appears to be closely associated with these patients' survival. We thus sought to develop a nomogram that predicts survival based on the duration of chronic hemodialysis patients' sedentary behavior. One hundred twenty-four patients under chronic hemodialysis (73 men, 51 women, age 71.7±11.1 years) were enrolled in this cohort study. The patients wore a triaxial accelerometer that measured both their sedentary behavior, i.e., total sedentary behavior (minutes) and their maximum sedentary bouts (min) on non-hemodialysis days. We obtained the Kaplan-Meier curve and used the log-rank test and a Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the relationship between the patients' sedentary behavior and their survival. We also used a Cox proportional hazards model to develop a nomogram for the patients' 5-year survival rate. Forty-six patients died during the follow-up period. When we stratified the patients by the medians of total sedentary behavior and maximum sedentary bouts, we observed significant between-group differences. After adjustment for confounding factors in a Cox proportional hazards model, total sedentary behavior and maximum sedentary bouts were identified as critical survival factors, and we generated a nomogram using an index of sedentary behavior. Our analysis results demonstrated that sedentary behavior on non-dialysis days was closely associated with the survival of the chronic hemodialysis patients, suggesting that a decrease in sedentary behavior would prolong their survival. The nomogram developed herein based on sedentary behavior may be useful for predicting the outcomes of chronic hemodialysis patients.