Forecasting the Largest Expected Earthquake in Canadian Seismogenic Zones

Area of Science:

• Geophysics
• Seismology
• Earthquake Science

Background:

• Earthquakes cause significant damage, necessitating effective forecasting models.
• The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is a key statistical framework for analyzing earthquake sequences.

Purpose of the Study:

• To apply the ETAS model to Canadian seismicity for parameter estimation and long-term forecasting.
• To assess the ETAS model's ability to replicate observed seismic patterns by generating synthetic earthquake catalogs.

Main Methods:

• Utilized historical earthquake data for Canada.
• Estimated ETAS model parameters for seven distinct Canadian regions.
• Generated synthetic earthquake catalogs to validate model performance.

Main Results:

• Southwestern Canada (British Columbia coast) faces the highest seismic risk, with a 66% probability of M7.5+ earthquakes in 30 years.
• Alberta has the lowest seismic risk (4% probability for M6.5+ events).
• Southeastern Canada (Ontario, Quebec) has a 74% probability of M6.0+ events, posing a risk to populated areas.

Conclusions:

• The ETAS model effectively characterizes Canadian seismicity and forecasts regional risks.
• Seismicity maps generated by the model are useful for real-time analysis, though further improvements are needed for broader applications.