Human Activities and Climate Change Accelerate the Spread Risk of Hyphantria cunea in China

Anthropogenic activities and climate change have accelerated biological invasions, leading to profound ecological, economic, social, and health impacts. The invasive species fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) has been reported to have outbreaks in areas with climate anomalies and human settlements in recent years, highlighting the necessity to explore the species' suitable habitat and associated future changes. We built an ensemble species distribution model using Random Forest, MaxEnt, and Support Vector Machine, achieving excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.996). Our results identify human settlement density as the dominant driving factor, with a contribution > 50%, far exceeding climatic and forest structure variables. Therefore, densely urbanized regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Liaodong Peninsula, and the North China Plain comprise the current highly suitable areas. Future climate projections suggest a continued expansion of the suitable habitat for H. cunea, with the most pronounced growth expected under the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5), where human activity is greatest. Such a correlation indicates that highly urbanized regions should be given priority for corresponding monitoring and control measures. As climate warming continues, northeastern China will face escalating invasion risks. Conversely, some regions within the Yangtze River Delta may become less suitable for the habitation of H. cunea. These findings provide insightful guidance for region-specific surveillance, quarantine measures, and the precision management of H. cunea in China.