Increased Mortality Rates During the 2025 Chikungunya Epidemic in Réunion Island

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has historically been regarded as a low-fatality infection; however, growing evidence from diverse study designs demonstrated a substantial mortality burden during large-scale epidemics. In 2025, Réunion Island experienced a major CHIKV outbreak, raising renewed concerns about its fatal impact.

We conducted an ecological time-series analysis of all-cause mortality during the 2025 chikungunya epidemic. Expected deaths were estimated using two complementary approaches: (i) a baseline based on age-specific mean mortality rates from the same calendar months in the post-pandemic period and (ii) long-term Poisson regression models using a log-link function and population offset, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and expected deaths during periods when observed mortality significantly exceeded the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (CI).

Observed mortality exceeded the upper 95% CI limit for three consecutive months, coinciding with the epidemic curve and resulting in an estimated 208 excess deaths. These deaths were concentrated among older adults, peaking in April 2025 with a mortality rate ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.22-1.47; p < 0.001). Among older adults, the age-specific excess mortality rate reached 145.3 per 100,000 (95% CI: 125.5-165.0) with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.4%, resulting in an overall population excess mortality rate of 23.2 per 100,000 and a total CFR of 0.4%. The number of deaths identified through routine surveillance was substantially lower than our estimates, highlighting a significant discrepancy between reported and excess chikungunya-associated mortality.

Chikungunya epidemics are consistently associated with substantial underrecognized mortality worldwide. Routine surveillance relying solely on laboratory confirmation underestimates the true burden of the disease. Integrating excess mortality analysis, strengthening diagnostic and postmortem investigations, and implementing timely mitigation measures are essential to accurately assess and reduce preventable deaths during future CHIKV outbreaks.