Rural dengue dynamics: the interplay of climate, built environment, and agriculture in Costa Rica

Area of Science:

• Arbovirology
• Epidemiology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Dengue is a major global arboviral disease, often underestimated in rural settings.
• Understanding rural dengue drivers is crucial for predicting risk under global change.
• Socio-environmental factors influencing rural dengue dynamics require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the combined influence of climate, built environments, and land use on rural dengue transmission in Costa Rica.
• To disentangle the complex interactions shaping dengue dynamics in rural areas.
• To identify key environmental and infrastructural factors associated with elevated dengue risk.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 22 years of canton-level dengue case data to compare urban and rural burdens.
• Application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to ten years of district-level monthly case data.
• Integration of climatic, weather, built environment, and land-use data to identify risk factors.

Main Results:

• Rural districts consistently exhibit higher dengue cases and incidence than urban districts.
• Temperature influences broad spatial patterns, while precipitation effects vary by coastal region.
• Built infrastructure significantly increases risk up to a certain threshold; agricultural cover elevates risk at lower elevations.

Conclusions:

• Rural dengue risk in Costa Rica is shaped by the interplay of climate suitability and existing infrastructure.
• Agriculture emerges as a significant driver of rural dengue transmission, particularly in specific elevation zones.
• Findings highlight the need to consider diverse socio-environmental factors for effective rural dengue control strategies.