Reassessing boreal wildfire drivers enables high-resolution mapping of emissions for climate adaptation

The expansive carbon reservoirs of the boreal region are becoming some of the most rapidly growing sources of greenhouse gasses under a positive feedback between intensifying fire activity and climate change. However, current regional-scale methods lack the spatial precision needed to improve understanding of the drivers of these fluxes to inform strategies aimed at maximizing landscape carbon storage. Here, we develop an alternative and highly constrained procedure for estimating wildfire emissions at both local (10 meters) and regional (1000 kilometers) scales in boreal Fennoscandia. This approach reassessed existing knowledge of heat development within the context of modern geospatial datasets, revealing expanded applications of satellite-derived fire radiative power in classifying distinct smoldering dynamics. The findings additionally emphasized the importance of capturing fine-scale variation in climate-sensitive fuel loading when determining regional fire season impact. Comparisons revealed substantial limitations in existing boreal carbon accounting methods while providing insights into the sensitivity of fire regime characteristics to climate, management, and landscape structure.