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Machine learning to optimize precision in the analysis of randomized trials: A journey in pre-specified, yet
Laura B Balzer1, Mark J van der Laan1, Maya L Petersen1
1Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
We developed a machine learning approach for covariate adjustment to enhance clinical trial precision. This method, targeted machine learning estimation (TMLE) with adaptive pre-specification, improves efficiency in estimating treatment effects.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Clinical Trials
- Machine Learning
Background:
- Covariate adjustment enhances clinical trial precision by accounting for prognostic baseline variables.
- The SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial provided motivation for developing advanced adjustment methods.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop, evaluate, and implement a machine learning-based covariate adjustment approach.
- To improve the estimation of marginal effects in clinical trial analyses.
- To maximize empirical efficiency through data-adaptive estimator selection.
Main Methods:
- Utilized targeted machine learning estimation (TMLE) with Adaptive Pre-specification.
- Employed sample-splitting for data-adaptive selection of outcome regression and propensity score estimators.
- Minimized cross-validated variance estimates to maximize empirical efficiency.
Main Results:
- Successfully applied the TMLE approach in the primary analysis of eight recent clinical trials (2022-2024).
- Demonstrated improved precision and efficiency in covariate adjustment for trial analyses.
- Validated finite sample performance through parametric and plasmode simulations.
Conclusions:
- The developed machine learning approach offers a practical and efficient method for covariate adjustment.
- Recommendations are provided for implementing this approach in future clinical trial primary analyses.
- Encourages adoption of TMLE with adaptive pre-specification for enhanced trial precision.
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