The Cumulative Exposure to Exclusionary Zoning in Impoverished Neighborhoods

In this study, I carry out dynamic modeling strategies to estimate the cumulative associations between exclusionary zoning and material hardship in impoverished neighborhoods. To do so, I create the largest nationwide panel zoning database to date by combining the National Zoning and Land Use Database covering the years 2019‒2022 with prior zoning and land use data from 2003‒2006. Accounting for posttreatment bias-the bias generated by including time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by past treatments in a longitudinal model-with marginal structural models, I demonstrate that exclusionary zoning is strongly associated with neighborhood disadvantage in impoverished neighborhoods, much more than would be uncovered using fixed effects or other modeling approaches. Exclusionary zoning is associated with higher median rents and higher shares of rent-burdened households in impoverished communities. Higher rents may be generated by higher housing prices as well as by a shortage of housing available to below-median income households throughout a metro area. These results suggest that exclusionary zoning policies may not only contribute to concentrated advantage in affluent areas but also have spillover effects that have negative long-run consequences for disadvantaged neighboring communities.