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A New Perspective on Predicting PLA2R-Associated Membranous Nephropathy Relapse: The Value of a Genetic Risk Score
Xiaolong Wang1, Kexin Yao1, Yue Niu1
1Department of Nephrology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Chinese PLA Institute of Nephrology, State Key Laboratory of Kidney Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Kidney Diseases, Beijing Key Laboratory of Kidney Diseases, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Purpose:
Membranous nephropathy (MN) is a common glomerular disease characterized by high relapse rates and heterogeneous outcomes. This study aimed to develop a genetic risk score (GRS) based on five MN-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and assess its predictive value for disease relapse.
Methods:
In this prospective study, we analyzed data from 234 patients with phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R)-associated MN between January 2020 and December 2023. Genotyping for five SNPs associated with MN risk (rs28383345, rs2187668, rs35771982, rs3749117, and rs4664308) was performed. A GRS was constructed and Cox regression models were used to assess risk factors for remission and relapse. Predictive performance was evaluated using Cox regression, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), likelihood ratio test (LRT), and cross-validation.
Results:
Over a median follow-up duration of 28.0 (IQR 20.0, 39.0) months, the cumulative remission rate was 85.5%, with 47% relapsing. A high GRS was significantly associated with the risk of relapse (HR = 1.885, 95% CI: 1.331-2.585; P < 0.001). Adding GRS to the base model consistently increased the time-dependent AUC at years 2, 4, and 5 (all P < 0.05). Notably, assessments using risk reclassification metrics (IDI/NRI) and model fit metrics (LRT/AIC/BIC) also verified significant improvements in model performance across multiple years. Critically, rigorous repeated cross-validation demonstrated that the overall C-index gain provided by the GRS was both stable and significant (P < 0.05), and further year-by-year cross-validation confirmed that this advantage persisted across all evaluated years (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis further confirmed the robustness of the GRS.
Conclusion:
This study is the first to apply a GRS in predicting relapse in PLA2R-associated MN. GRS significantly enhances predictive accuracy, offering a valuable tool for personalized risk assessment.
Insights
A new genetic risk score (GRS) effectively predicts relapse in phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R)-associated membranous nephropathy (MN). This GRS tool aids in personalized risk assessment for patients with this common glomerular disease.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Genetics
- Glomerular Diseases
Background:
- Membranous nephropathy (MN) is a leading cause of nephrotic syndrome in adults.
- High relapse rates and variable patient outcomes complicate MN management.
- Phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R)-associated MN accounts for the majority of primary MN cases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a genetic risk score (GRS) using MN-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).
- To evaluate the predictive capability of the GRS for disease relapse in PLA2R-associated MN.
- To assess the GRS's utility in enhancing personalized risk stratification for MN patients.
Main Methods:
- A prospective cohort of 234 PLA2R-associated MN patients was analyzed.
- Genotyping was performed for five established MN-risk SNPs.
- A GRS was constructed, and Cox regression models assessed relapse risk.
- Predictive performance was validated using time-dependent ROC curves, reclassification, and model fit metrics.
Main Results:
- A high GRS was significantly associated with an increased risk of MN relapse (HR=1.885, P<0.001).
- The GRS improved predictive accuracy across multiple years, as evidenced by AUC, NRI, and IDI.
- Model fit statistics (LRT, AIC, BIC) and cross-validation confirmed the GRS's robust predictive performance.
Conclusions:
- This study introduces the first GRS for predicting relapse in PLA2R-associated MN.
- The GRS significantly enhances the accuracy of relapse prediction in MN.
- The developed GRS serves as a valuable tool for personalized risk assessment and management of MN.
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