Predicting the localized prevalence of ascariasis in the Philippines using bioclimatic and topographical covariates: a case study in Cavite province

Ascariasis is a disease caused by Ascaris lumbricoides and the most common soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection worldwide, with over 807 to 1.2 billion reported cases. Ascariasis remains prevalent in the Philippines, a tropical and developing country, and is a major problem among school children. In Luzon Island alone, the biggest island of the archipelago, cases of Ascariasis remain to be a known prevalent yet localized risk map of its distribution among marginalized provinces in the country is still neglected. Therefore, the first base map that considered the potentialities of Ascariasis distribution in Cavite province was established using ArcMap software version 10.8.2. Meanwhile, the bioclimatic, soil, and elevation variables in the modeling of the disease employ the free software package Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt); Bayesian geostatistical models predicted that the highest prevalence of Ascariasis is in Cavite. Primary data on the prevalence of Ascariasis were collected from the 22 cities and municipalities of Cavite. The results showed a relatively moderate AUC value of 0.654 which also points to the city of Bacoor in Cavite as having the greatest risk of prevalence. Predictive maps generated in this study call out public health mitigation of the STH disease.