Does sports industry development improve regional public health? A cross-regional heterogeneous study in China

This study investigates whether sports industry development improves regional public health in China, with particular attention to potential nonlinear threshold effects and regional heterogeneity. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2010-2024, Hansen's panel threshold regression model is employed to examine the relationship between sports industry development (measured as percentage of GDP) and life expectancy, supplemented by instrumental variable estimation and system GMM approaches to address endogeneity concerns. The results reveal a significant single threshold effect at 0.96% of GDP (95% CI: 0.89-1.04), with the promotion coefficient increasing from 0.312 to 0.369 (+18.3%) after crossing this threshold. Regional analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity: Eastern China exhibits a linear relationship without threshold effects, while Central and Western regions demonstrate distinct thresholds at 1.06 and 0.79%, respectively, with effect enhancements of 13.3 and 26.4% after crossing these thresholds. These findings suggest that sports industry development significantly promotes public health through nonlinear mechanisms that vary across regional development stages. Policy implications indicate that differentiated strategies should prioritize sports industry investment in underdeveloped Western regions where marginal health benefits are greatest.