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Updated: Mar 3, 2026

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An Increasing Misalignment Between Crop Distribution and Environmental Resources Under Climate Change in China.

Zheng'e Su1,2,3, Zhentao Zhang1, Jin Zhao1

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Advanced Science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)
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Climate change impacts crop production. Maize and wheat harvests increasingly mismatch water availability, threatening food security and highlighting the need for resource-informed agricultural strategies and water management.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Sustainable crop production is vital for food security, especially under climate change.
  • Understanding local environmental resources is key to easing resource pressure.
  • Crop production must adapt to changing climatic conditions and resource availability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the integrated environmental resource endowment for maize and wheat.
  • To analyze the alignment between crop harvest areas and environmental resources over the past 20 years.
  • To identify the spatial mismatch between crop cultivation and water availability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized multi-source data and a crop model for analysis.
  • Quantified climatic conditions, blue water availability, and soil properties.
  • Assessed the alignment of harvest areas with environmental resource endowments.

Main Results:

  • Maize cultivation shifted northward, while wheat's high endowment regions moved west and harvest areas east.
  • Significant spatial misalignment between crop areas and water resources was observed.
  • Approximately 84% of maize and 90% of wheat areas face water scarcity, requiring supplemental water.

Conclusions:

  • The growing mismatch necessitates smarter, resource-informed crop placement and water management.
  • Aligning crops with local environmental capacity can ease resource pressure and strengthen food security.
  • Sustainable agricultural practices are crucial for long-term economic and ecological health.