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An Increasing Misalignment Between Crop Distribution and Environmental Resources Under Climate Change in China
Zheng'e Su1,2,3, Zhentao Zhang1, Jin Zhao1
1College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Advanced Science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)
|March 2, 2026
Summary
Climate change impacts crop production. Maize and wheat harvests increasingly mismatch water availability, threatening food security and highlighting the need for resource-informed agricultural strategies and water management.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- Sustainable crop production is vital for food security, especially under climate change.
- Understanding local environmental resources is key to easing resource pressure.
- Crop production must adapt to changing climatic conditions and resource availability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the integrated environmental resource endowment for maize and wheat.
- To analyze the alignment between crop harvest areas and environmental resources over the past 20 years.
- To identify the spatial mismatch between crop cultivation and water availability.
Main Methods:
- Utilized multi-source data and a crop model for analysis.
- Quantified climatic conditions, blue water availability, and soil properties.
- Assessed the alignment of harvest areas with environmental resource endowments.
Main Results:
- Maize cultivation shifted northward, while wheat's high endowment regions moved west and harvest areas east.
- Significant spatial misalignment between crop areas and water resources was observed.
- Approximately 84% of maize and 90% of wheat areas face water scarcity, requiring supplemental water.
Conclusions:
- The growing mismatch necessitates smarter, resource-informed crop placement and water management.
- Aligning crops with local environmental capacity can ease resource pressure and strengthen food security.
- Sustainable agricultural practices are crucial for long-term economic and ecological health.
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