Undamped climate change poses the need for substantial shifts in cultivated crop types in Germany

Numerous studies have highlighted the severe implications of climate change for agriculture across the planet, due to shifting climate patterns, heat waves, flood and drought events. Combining state-of-the-art high-resolution observational and model-based climate data with elaborate land use data and the method of climate analogues now allows to foreshadow future agricultural landscapes, anticipating adaptational and transformational needs towards enhanced climate resilience of regional agriculture. The approach is exemplified for a highly diversified farming area in southern Germany. Until the end of the 21st century a clear shift towards typical Mediterranean crops prevails, while many of today's common crops are expected to become less important. Only higher-elevation parts are projected to face climate analogues in Germany itself, whereas most subregions may exhibit climate conditions that are nowadays found in the northern Mediterranean area. Altogether, undamped climate change will require a radical transformation of the German agricultural sector.