Preoperative Prediction of Esophageal Cancer Survival in CT via Tumor and Lymph Node Context and Geometry Modeling

Esophageal cancer is one of the most lethal cancers, with 5-year survival rate of only 20%. Patient outcomes can vary significantly even though they are at the same cancer stage and receive similar treatments. Accurate prognostic prediction for esophageal cancer patients is highly desired to receive personalized precise treatment. Nevertheless, there are very few automated methods yet to fully exploit the preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) imaging for assessing esophageal cancer prognosis. In addition to image patterns, important prognostic factors should encompass tumor size and location, as well as lymph nodes (LNs) involvement, including features such as LN number, size, spatial distribution, and their proximity to tumor. Considering these complexities, we propose a novel Tumor and LN Context-Geometry network for the preoperative prediction of esophageal cancer survival in CE-CT images. Specifically, we 1) focus on learning survival patterns of CT texture via co-attention context modeling at most informative regions, i.e., automatically segmented tumor, LNs and LN-stations; and 2) integrate tumor and LN anatomical and spatial associations into neural geometry modeling for a comprehensive learning of metastatic involvement and tumor invasion to adjacent structures. Empirical studies show our presented framework can improve overall survival prediction performances compared with existing state-of-the-art survival analysis methods, and evidently suggest that incorporating these findings into the existing esophageal cancer staging system would add its clinical values.