Assessing the potential of CAP 2023 Agri-environmental schemes for Mediterranean agroforestry livestock systems: A...

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023-2027 seeks to promote a greener and more sustainable agricultural model through the introduction of agri-environmental schemes that require significant changes in farm management. In this context, extensive livestock farms located in Mediterranean agroforestry systems (MAGFs), such as the Spanish dehesa, play a key role in climate regulation, biodiversity conservation and wildfire prevention. To assess the potential impacts of the new CAP agri-environmental schemes on these systems, a Delphi study was conducted in 2022 and 2023 with a panel of 35 national experts. Using an online questionnaire, experts evaluated 65 statements grouped into six thematic sections covering environmental, productive, social and policy-related dimensions. Overall, the Delphi results reveal a clear contrast between dimensions, with strong expert convergence on environmental outcomes and greater uncertainty regarding socio-economic and structural effects. Experts point out, with a high degree of consensus, that the implementation of the CAP and the agri-environmental schemes will generate significant environmental benefits in dehesa systems, particularly through improvements in soil quality and the enhancement of their role as carbon sinks. A transition towards more sustainable and organic livestock production models is anticipated, although this shift is perceived as being highly dependent on subsidies and additional support policies. In contrast, social benefits associated with the new CAP are considered less evident in the short term and unlikely to substantially contribute to rural population retention. Experts also anticipate only partial improvements in farm digitalization and in the incorporation of young farmers into the sector. These findings highlight the need to complement expert-based assessments with empirical evidence and participatory approaches in order to design more adaptive and effective CAP interventions tailored to the specific characteristics and challenges of extensive livestock systems such as the dehesa.