Triggering Change: Evaluating the Impact of ATF Actions on Firearm Assault Rates in a Large US City

Interpersonal firearm violence claims approximately 15,000 lives annually in the USA. 5% of gun stores-known as 'trace stores'-account for 90% of firearms used in crimes. Oversight of these stores falls to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF). However, the efficacy of ATF enforcement on reducing firearm-related violence remains understudied. This study evaluates the relationship between ATF interventions and local firearm crimes and assaults.

Firearm assault and homicide data (June 2014 to January 2020) were collected from the local Police Department's Open Data Portal. The Brady Gun Store Transparency Project Database was used to identify firearm dealer violations and ATF actions involving trace stores. A top 100 trace store was selected for analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis was performed to evaluate for impact of the ATF action. Due to autocorrelation using a Durbin-Watson test, a Prais-Winsten analysis was applied.

The ATF action was associated with an 18% reduction in firearm-related crimes (β -78.2, 95% CI -125.3 to -31.2) and firearm assaults or homicides (β -25.7, 95% CI -44.5 to -7.0). A similar upward trend in firearm-related violence persisted from the new baseline.

Targeted ATF enforcement can reduce firearm violence in the short term. However, persistent crime and systemic challenges such as infrequent inspections and inconsistent penalties may limit long-term impact.

ATF interventions at high-risk firearm dealers may help mitigate violence but require sustained, consistent enforcement to ensure lasting effects.