Effects of Initial Experiences on Risky Choice

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Decision science
• Neuroeconomics

Background:

• Biases in learning and memory, such as the primacy effect, influence risky decision-making.
• The primacy effect describes how initial experiences disproportionately impact later memory and choices.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate potential primacy effects in decision-making related to outcome probability and relative value.
• To differentiate the impact of early versus later experiences on learning about risky options.

Main Methods:

• Three experiments (N=772) were conducted, manipulating the order of experiencing different outcome probabilities and relative values.
• The first two experiments varied the order of outcome probabilities (N=382).
• The third experiment manipulated the introduction of a wildcard option with varying outcome extremeness (N=390).

Main Results:

• No primacy effects were observed for learning outcome probabilities across the first two experiments.
• In the third experiment, the early introduction of a more-extreme wildcard option influenced choices.
• Introducing the same extreme wildcard later in the session did not affect choices, indicating a lasting primacy effect for relative value.

Conclusions:

• Learning about outcome probabilities in risky choices is continuously updated.
• Risk preferences influenced by the relative value of options exhibit a lasting primacy effect, with early experiences having a disproportionate impact.