Silicon wafers outperform batteries: efficiency heterogeneity and policy effects in China's photovoltaic industry

With the intensification of global climate change and the depletion of fossil fuels, renewable energy represented by photovoltaic power generation has become the key alternative form of energy for the transformation of electric energy. Driven by policy support and market demand, China’s photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, but it also faces the problems of efficiency differentiation and unequal resource allocation. This research focuses on the development efficiency, influencing factors, and future trend prediction of China’s photovoltaic industry, selects data of 37 listed Chinese photovoltaic enterprises from 2018 to 2023, uses Windows DEA model to evaluate enterprise efficiency, analyzes the influencing factors through a Tobit regression model, and predicts the future development trend with the help of a BP neural network method. The findings show that overall efficiency of the domestic photovoltaic industry increased steadily from 2018 to 2023 at an average of 0.31–0.46 under average annual growth of about 8%. There are significant differences in the efficiency performance of enterprises located in various industrial chain positions. The efficiency of the silicon chip link leads, while there is a large room for improvement in the battery link. In terms of influencing factors, GDP of the enterprise location has a positive role in promoting the efficiency of photovoltaic enterprises, electricity consumption and government subsidies negatively impact photovoltaic efficiency, and the installed capacity of power generation has a significantly positive effect on efficiency. The prediction results show that the efficiency of China’s photovoltaic industry is expected to grow, but there is clear differentiation between industrial chains. This study provides theoretical basis and decision support for optimizing resource allocation of the photovoltaic industry, enhancing international competitiveness, and helping this industry’s sustainable development in China. Finally, this paper offers targeted suggestions to improve the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic industry and to promote the transformation of the power industry toward a cleaner direction.