Securing global food security under climate change: an Area-Yield-Stability policy perspective

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Climate change poses a "triple threat" to global agriculture, impacting cultivable land area, yield per unit area, and production stability.
• This systemic crisis jeopardizes food security, with risks amplified beyond simple yield decline assessments.
• Autonomous adaptation measures offer partial mitigation but leave significant residual damages.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the multifaceted impacts of climate change on global agriculture.
• To highlight the amplified risks to food security due to the "triple threat" phenomenon.
• To propose an integrated policy strategy for future food supply security.

Main Methods:

• Systemic risk assessment integrating land area, yield, and production stability.
• Analysis of climate change impacts on agricultural pillars.
• Evaluation of autonomous adaptation effectiveness and residual damages.

Main Results:

• Climate change is actively eroding the foundations of global agriculture.
• A "triple threat" of reduced cropland, declining yields, and volatile production is identified.
• Food security risks are significantly underestimated when focusing solely on average yield declines.

Conclusions:

• Future food security necessitates safeguarding agricultural land, enhancing climate-resilient productivity, and managing systemic volatility.
• Integrated policy interventions involving governments, the private sector, and international bodies are crucial.
• Proactive and comprehensive strategies are required to address the complex challenges posed by climate change to agriculture.