Coyote Range Expansion in the Human-Modified Tropics of Mesoamerica

Understanding species range dynamics is central to ecology and biogeography, particularly as global environmental change accelerates range shifts, expansions, and biological invasions. Carnivores are notable for their capacity to exploit human-modified landscapes, yet most research has focused on temperate regions where apex predator extirpation often facilitates expansion. By contrast, carnivore range expansions in tropical landscapes remain poorly documented. Here we assess the recent southward expansion of coyotes (Canis latrans) into the human-modified tropics of Mesoamerica, where they now overlap with apex predator assemblages. We compiled 278 coyote records from areas lacking previous evidence of their presence by integrating data from 44 camera-trap surveys (1125 cameras deployed, totaling 203,682 camera-trap/days between 2012 and 2025) and citizen-science platforms (iNaturalist and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility). To investigate drivers of coyote occurrence, we fitted a generalized linear model (GLM) using the Global Human Modification Index (GHMI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and spatiotemporal factors as predictors. Model results indicated higher probabilities of coyote occurrence in more human-modified landscapes (higher GHMI) and areas with lower vegetation greenness (lower NDVI). Furthermore, a significant positive temporal trend indicated that the probability of occurrence increased annually. This case highlights how land-use change facilitates range expansions at continental margins and underscores the conceptual blurring between native range expansion and invasion processes. The ability of coyotes to thrive in both natural and human-dominated environments suggests continued spatial expansion, reinforcing the need for proactive management strategies grounded in both ecological science and local sociocultural contexts.