Where talent flows: Trends and determinants of Chinese students' city preferences

Employment location preferences offer critical insights into how students evaluate opportunities across cities and drive early-career spatial sorting. This study examines Chinese college students' employment city preferences from 2016 to 2020, focusing on the evolving influence of campus performance, family background, and university characteristics. Using five waves of nationally representative longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Chinese University Students (PSCUS), we apply multinomial logistic regression and relative importance analyses. Our results show that university characteristics as the primary predictor: students from Double First-Class universities favor first-tier cities, even as second-tier cities attract the largest share of students. Strong campus performance allows students to be more flexible in their location choices, whereas family background plays a moderate, compensatory role. Temporal patterns suggest that students' preferences reflect the combined influence of institutional prestige, personal merit, and family resources. The findings provide insights into early-career mobility and inform policies for balanced regional development.