Early prediction of transient versus permanent congenital hypothyroidism: a retrospective cohort study

Early differentiation between transient congenital hypothyroidism (TCH) and permanent congenital hypothyroidism (PCH) is crucial for optimizing the duration of treatment. This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate whether levothyroxine (LT4) dose requirements over time can predict TCH and guide earlier discontinuation of treatment.

We retrospectively analyzed 105 infants with congenital hypothyroidism and normal thyroid glands confirmed by imaging at a single tertiary care center (Inha University Hospital) between January 2013 and December 2022. Patients were classified into TCH (n=70) or PCH (n=35) based on thyroid function after LT4 withdrawal at 3 years of age. LT4 dose/kg at 6, 12, and 24 months, along with clinical and biochemical parameters, were compared between the 2 groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the predictive performance of LT4 dose thresholds.

The LT4 dose was significantly lower in the TCH group at 6 (3.16±0.83 μg/kg vs. 3.75±0.99 μg/kg, P=0.005), 12 (2.51±0.82 μg/kg vs. 3.37±1.17 μg/kg, P<0.001), and 24 months (2.02±0.61 μg/kg vs. 3.09±1.19 μg/kg, P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.649, 0.746, and 0.794 at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. A logistic regression model incorporating LT4 dose, birth weight, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels improved prediction accuracy (AUC: 0.740, 0.782, 0.833 at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively).

LT4 dose requirements at 6, 12, and 24 months serve as useful indicators for differentiating TCH from PCH. A combined predictive model incorporating LT4 dose, birth weight, and TSH levels may improve diagnostic accuracy, supporting earlier discontinuation of treatment.