A Clinicopathology and Simplified Molecular Marker-Based Risk Stratification Model for Predicting 3-Year Recurrence...

The integration of clinicopathological parameters and molecular biomarkers holds significant prognostic value for endometrial carcinoma (EC) recurrence assessment. The purpose of this study is to combine clinical pathological parameters with simple molecular features to predict 3-year recurrence of EC.

Based on a retrospective cohort with 136 patients assessing recurrence risk within 3 years postoperatively, we developed PM-TERR (clinicopathology and simplified molecular markers-based EC tailored 3-year recurrence risk). All patients were randomly assigned to the training set (96 patients) and the test set (40 patients). The nomogram comprised 4 input variables (Stage, Grade, Pathology Type, and P53 status) for calculating a PM-TERR score.

Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant association between PM-TERR scores and disease-free survival (DFS) in both the training and test sets (both P < .001). The PM-TERR model outperformed the ESMO stratification in predicting DFS. The likelihood value of the PM-TERR model increased by 6.88 in the training set, and by 2.20 in the test set, both sets P < .05. Time-dependent ROC analysis further confirmed the PM-TERR enhanced predictive accuracy, with consistently higher AUC values across all time points than ESMO in both cohorts.

In summary, the PM-TERR model integrates stage, grade, histology, and p53 status to predict 3-year recurrence risk. This retrospective, single-center study demonstrates its potential utility; however, future prospective, multi-center validation is required to confirm its robustness and clinical applicability before broader implementation.