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Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends
Samantha Stevenson1, Clara Deser2, Sloan Coats3
1University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Science Advances
|March 6, 2026
Summary
Future climate change impacts the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Equatorial precipitation and cloud feedbacks control future SST gradient changes, suggesting models may underestimate El Nino-like warming.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- The equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) zonal gradient significantly influences global climate patterns.
- Future climate change projections of the SST gradient are uncertain due to climate model biases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of equatorial precipitation and cloud feedbacks on the future Pacific SST gradient.
- To assess the reliability of climate model projections for the Pacific SST gradient.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing multiple climate model Large Ensembles to analyze historical and future climate simulations.
- Computing an "SST gradient sensitivity" parameter for each model to quantify responses.
- Examining the interplay between SST, shortwave radiation feedback, and atmospheric wind responses.
Main Results:
- Equatorial precipitation and cloud feedbacks are identified as key drivers of the future Pacific SST gradient.
- Models with stronger historical equatorial precipitation exhibit higher sensitivity to El Nino-like warming.
- A negative SST-shortwave radiation feedback amplifies El Nino-like warming, modulated by deep convection saturation effects.
Conclusions:
- Climate models may underestimate the magnitude of future El Nino-like changes due to underestimated feedback processes.
- The "true" magnitude of future El Nino-like changes in the Pacific SST gradient may be predictable.
- Understanding these feedbacks is crucial for improving climate change projections.
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