Sustainable hydropower development under the Belt and Road Initiative: Role of international cooperation and its...

Hydropower development could strengthen domestic water management while generating substantial clean, renewable electricity. However, developing economies often struggle to sustainably support the high costs and extended timelines of hydropower projects. Cross-border financing and cooperation break down technological and financial barriers, serving as crucial channels to address hydropower development challenges and achieve equitable global energy transition-yet systematic causal evidence on these mechanisms remains limited. This study leverages the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a large-scale natural experiment in international cooperation and employs panel data from 121 countries spanning the period 2000-2022 to estimate its effect on renewable hydropower generation. A multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) framework is used and robustness is tested using the Callaway-Sant'Anna DID (CSDID), placebo tests, and supplementary validations. The results reveal that: (1) BRI participating countries experienced a 15.2% increase in hydropower generation compared to non-participants, and the BRI accounts for roughly 16.3% of the hydropower growth along the initiative's routes. (2) BRI hydropower projects are associated with an approximate 3.3% reduction in carbon emissions. (3) The BRI promotes hydropower development through technology and scale effects. (4) The BRI's impact varies nonlinearly with economic development, with the strongest hydropower effects in middle-income economies. It is also more effective in countries with high industrialization, less renewable energy and early membership. These findings offer empirical support and policy insights for strengthening BRI energy partnerships and cross-border hydropower cooperation, with significant implications for a cleaner, more equitable global energy transition.