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Early-onset cancer burden and risk: A population-based study
Axelle Braggion1, Bernadette W A van der Linden2, Stefano Tancredi1
1Population Health Laboratory (#PopHealthLab), University of Fribourg, Switzerland; Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), Zurich, Switzerland.
Cancer Epidemiology
|March 6, 2026
Summary
The global burden of early-onset cancers is rising, primarily due to population growth and aging, not solely increased risk. This trend is observed in both early- and later-onset cancers, with notable exceptions in specific cancer sites.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Global increase in early-onset cancers raises significant concerns.
- Confusion exists regarding trends in cancer case numbers versus age-standardized rates.
- Lack of comparative analysis between early- and later-onset cancer trends.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe trends in cancer burden and risk for early- and later-onset cancers in Switzerland.
- To compare changes in incidence and mortality rates between 1982 and 2021.
- To differentiate the impact of population growth and aging versus increased risk.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Swiss National Institute for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration (1982-2021).
- Defined early-onset cancers as diagnosed between ages 20-49, and later-onset at 50+.
- Calculated annual cases, deaths, crude and age-standardized rates, estimating changes between 1982-1986 and 2017-2021.
Main Results:
- Mean annual early-onset cancers increased by 48% (+1534 cases); later-onset by 91% (+19,832 cases).
- Age-standardized incidence rates rose by 11% for early-onset and 8% for later-onset cancers.
- Population growth and aging explained 73% of early-onset and 90% of later-onset increases; mortality rates declined significantly.
Conclusions:
- The rising burden of early-onset cancers is primarily attributed to population growth and aging.
- An increased risk factor also contributes to the rise in both early- and later-onset cancers.
- Significant declines in age-standardized cancer mortality rates were observed across all age groups.
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