The subjective trauma outlook as a screening tool for PTSD during wartime: extension to the PCL-5 short form

This study investigates the predictive validity of the Subjective Trauma Outlook (STO) in conjunction with the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) checklist for the diagnostics and statistical manual for mental disorders (DSM-5) checklist (PCL-5) Short Form (PCL-5 SF) and the full PCL-5 for identifying probable PTSD within the context of the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack in Israel. Specifically, we examine the effectiveness of the STO in predicting PTSD and the utility of the PCL-5 SF as an alternative to the full PCL-5 in wartime.

A national sample of 4097 Israelis was assessed following the October 7 attack. Participants completed the PCL-5 questionnaire alongside the STO. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to determine the predictive validity and diagnostic utility of the STO when used with both PTSD assessment tools. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to establish optimal STO cutoff scores for PTSD risk classification.

Our findings indicate a strong similarity between the STO's predictive validity when paired with either the PCL-5 SF or the full PCL-5. The STO demonstrated robust associations with PTSD symptoms across both models, with comparable explained variance. The identified cutoff scores for the STO reinforce its utility in distinguishing individuals at risk for PTSD.

Our research contributes to the growing evidence supporting the STO as a valid screening tool for PTSD. It highlights the practical advantages of the PCL-5 SF as a viable alternative to the full PCL-5, particularly in crisis settings where rapid assessment is essential.