Maternal immunity drives age-related patterns of RSV disease

Clara Brigitta1, David Hodgson2, Graham F Medley3

  • 1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Epidemics
|March 7, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Maternal antibodies offer limited protection against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in infants, waning by six months. Maternal vaccination can reduce infant RSV cases by up to 18.4% in the coming years.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory illness in young children.
  • Maternally-derived antibodies provide temporary protection, but their effectiveness and interaction with age-specific disease risk are not well understood.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted RSV transmission, offering a unique context to study these dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the impact of maternally-derived immunity on infant RSV risk.
  • To model the effects of delayed primary exposure due to pandemic disruptions on RSV disease burden.
  • To project the potential impact of maternal vaccination on reducing infant RSV cases.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a compartmental model of childhood RSV incorporating maternal immunity, waning protection, and age-dependent risk.
  • Calibrated the model using Scottish surveillance data from 2016-2024.
  • Estimated non-linear functions for maternal immunity and RSV risk, and projected disease burden under different vaccination scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Maternal immunity was protective only when infection occurred late in pregnancy, with infant protection waning by six months.
  • RSV burden shifted to older children post-pandemic due to delayed exposure.
  • Infants missing their first RSV season showed higher disease rates later.
  • Maternal vaccination projected to decrease RSV cases in infants ≤6 months by 15.3% (2024-25) and 18.4% (2025-26).

Conclusions:

  • The timing and immunological mechanisms of maternally-derived immunity significantly influence RSV dynamics in young children.
  • Disruptions, like pandemics or vaccination programs, can alter age-specific RSV disease patterns.
  • Maternal vaccination shows promise in reducing the burden of RSV in vulnerable infants.

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